Paul Wasicka alias "KwickFish"
Created on: 9. August 2008
Last update on: 12. August 2008
Entry from 9. August 2008    

fight night 2!

What an exciting card tonight! I know the fights started 20 mins ago but I've got it on DVR so I haven't seen anything yet. I wrote this as quick as I could so that I could make some predictions beforehand. Usually I like to make the predictions when I see guys step into the ring. If I don't know either fighter, I just consider the fighter's builds, their prefight interviews, and who looks like they want it more. Anyway, here goes:

Georges St-Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
Pick: GSP
Who I want: Ambivalent (I really like both fighters)
Analysis: I think Fitch has a lot of talent and heart, but right now I feel that it’s GSP’s time. He is in such great shape and has faced tougher opposition than Fitch. I will say that Fitch has probably the best shot of dethroning GSP of anyone, but I think his victory will come in the inevitable rematch.

Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
Pick: Herring
Who I want: Herring
Analysis: The “Texas Crazy Horse” is a force to be reckoned with in the Heavyweight division. I thought he dominated the fight against Cheick Kongo – a match that I thought Kongo would win handily. Herring is one of the better conditioned athletes in his weight class and he can definitely deliver – but more importantly take a shot.

Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
Pick: Florian
Who I want: Ambivalent (I really like both fighters)
Analysis: I think this fight has potential to be the most exciting fight of the night. I picked Florian because of the quality fighters he’s matched up against. Huerta always seems to find a way to win, and there’s definitely something to be said for that, but I think that this will definitely be his toughest fight to date.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
Pick: Gamburyan
Who I want: Gamburyan
Analysis: I don’t know much about Emerson, but Gamburyan is an absolute beast. He is always really fun to watch and has a lot of potential in this sport.

Jason MacDonald vs. Demian Maia
Pick: MacDonald
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I was really impressed with MacDonald in the match against Rich Franklin (even though he ended up getting TKO’d). He has been on fire recently, with wins over Joe Doerksen – albeit not the Doerksen in his prime, Chris Leben, and Ed Herman

Luke Cummo vs. Tamdan McCrory
Pick: I’ll have to wait to see the fighters since I don’t know much about either fighter
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis:

Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
Pick: Kongo
Who I want: Evensen
Analysis: I used to be a Kongo fan, but I think his fights are usually a little slow paced and boring.

Andre Gusmao vs. Jon Jones
Pick: Jones – although I might change the pick once I see the fighters
Who I want: Jones
Analysis: Hopefully this will be an exciting fight, as both fighters are undefeated and both making their UFC debuts. I don’t know why I’m rooting for Jones, maybe because I like his style of fighting – Muay Thai, Jiu-Jitsu, and Wrestling.

Chris Wilson vs. Steve Bruno
Pick: Wilson – although again, I might change the pick once I see the fighters
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I’m picking Wilson solely because he took Jon Fitch the distance, but I could very well change my mind if I don’t see what I’m looking for when he comes out.

Ben Saunders vs. Ryan Thomas
Pick: I’ll have to wait to see the fighters since I don’t know much about either fighter
Who I want: Ambivalent
Analysis: I don’t know anything about these guys.

Getcha Popcorn Ready!
Paul



7.67        3
 
Photos provided by FullTilt Poker
Paul writes his blogs exclusively for kwickfish.com

now that´s some insight! keep those predictions coming!  
Playing professionally is a lot tgohuer and a hell of a lot less glamorous than most people realize. There are a number of factors to consider.The biggest, yet possibly least discussed, factor is the rake. All casinos, online or otherwise, rake cash games and require entry fees in tournaments. Some are reasonable and can be overcome by a truly skilled player, others are very excessive and should definitely be avoided. And, oddly, it can be difficult to determine the difference without considerable scrutiny.Another major pitfall is money management. It's very common for a player to go on a rush, perhaps even an extended rush, and do well only to give back all his winnings in a single session or small handful of sessions. Or possibly to spend those winnings on spoils only to go on a cold streak and lose what little bankroll he left himself to continue playing with.Others have done well, but lost everything when they have upped their limits a bit too high only to run into competition they can no longer beat, yet refused to drop their limits back down.And yet others might win a couple tournaments, but get sunk come tax time when they're forced to pay excessive taxes on the winnings they're forced to claim (and can't successfully negate to the satisfaction of an IRS auditor by claiming losses.)I played casino poker professionally for a while a number of years ago before most players today had ever heard of Hold'em so perhaps I can help you to an extent. Today, however, I just supplement with play in spare time only. It keeps me sane and more-importantly permits me to blow winnings on entertainment or things I wouldn't otherwise purchase without fear of depreciating my bankroll more than I should.Begin with limit play. Do your homework first! Read everything you can about low limit. Forget about tournaments and all-in play. Learn (or re-learn) the most basic fundamentals as they will apply to all games you may find yourself in. Commit to memory the importance of position, pot odds, aggressive play, etc. all the fundamentals.PLAY TIGHT! Seriously, play so tight it almost makes you puke. Rarely does a good, consistently-profitable player enjoy the game it should be a grind, perhaps even a bore. Get real used to folding and learn to fold monster hands when you're beat.DON'T EVER CALL A BET YOU KNOW YOU SHOULDN'T!Know your competition and learn from them. If you're playing in a casino, this isn't too difficult, but if you're playing online it can be more difficult. If you're playing online, do not surf the web, walk away from your PC during hands you're not in, etc. Watch and learn how others play specifically what hands they play, from what positions, and how they play them. Use that information to your benefit. Don't waste time trying to read peoples' faces.Know and learn from yourself. Know your limits and analyze your mistakes. For example, when you get your aces snapped, did you bring it on yourself by not raising pre-flop? Did you call a pre-flop raise with K-9, at some point make a straight, only to lose to a bigger straight by the guy holding A-K (the same guy who's raise you should never have called to start with)?In The Art of War, the 4th century B.C. Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu wisely states, Know your enemy and know yourself and in one hundred battles, you shall never perish. He must have been a poker player. Re-read the previous two paragraphs. See what I mean?KEEP BOOKS, BUT DON'T COOK THEM! By that I mean keep a log of your play. Track how much you win or lose along with how long you play each and every session. Don't forget to log a session because you took an astronomical odds-defying beat or two therefore that session was an anomaly and shouldn't count. When you're winning, consistently, more than one big bet per hour, you're doing good.Eventually you may consider hedging your bets a bit by playing a higher limit cash game. Go for it, but only if you can afford it. I would recommend playing at a limit where the conventional buy-in (usually 20-40 times the big bet) is no more than about 5% of your bankroll. Don't get too greedy by upping your limits too high or too quickly. And if after upping your limits, you find yourself losing, for God's sake, drop them back down and start playing winning poker again!If you're able to do all of the above, and do it for a profit, start entering some tournaments. Sure the strategy will differ a bit, but you'll already be equipped with the tools to know how and when to vary your play.In tournaments, find what works for you and run with it. As an ultra-tight and good heads-up no-limit player, I prefer single table tournaments where I almost always finish in the money and rarely lose once heads-up (even if way behind to start). If you're good at bullying right out of the gate, perhaps the multi-table tournaments are more your speed.Another note on tournaments, if you win big or accrue a certain amount of winnings over the course of a year in an actual casino, you'll be required to claim those winnings. For that reason, you may consider restricting your tournament play to online. If you prefer the casino setting, however, use your ATM card there often and save all the withdrawal slips. You can use those as evidence when you write off gambling losses in the event that you get audited.Last note on tournaments: Remember you can't up and walk away after a huge score like you can in a cash game!Sorry this has run rather long, but there's a lot (far, far more that just what I've written) to consider and learn before playing professionally. Hopefully it's helped, though.Good luck!  
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